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RamblinDash
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Ex-OpenAI employee amici leave to file denied in Musk v OpenAI case?
RamblinDash2mo10

One other thing has to do with the procedural posture. On a motion to dismiss, Courts are not generally supposed to evaluate facts at all. A motion to dismiss is essentially an argument by the defense that, even if all those accusations are true, they don't amount to a legal claim.

By contrast, a preliminary injunction does look at facts. So one reason for different treatment of the Encode brief vs. the ex-employees brief is that they were submitted in response to different motions.

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On Pseudo-Principality: Reclaiming "Whataboutism" as a Test for Counterfeit Principles
RamblinDash3mo20

One of the most common forms of Whataboutism is of the form "You criticize X, but other people vaguely politically aligned with you failed to criticize Y." (assuming for argument that X and Y are different but similar wrongs)

 

 The problem with that is that the only possible sincere answers are necessarily unsatisfying, and it's hard to gauge their sincerity. Here's what I see as the basic possibilities.

  • Y and X are equally bad, my allies are wrong about this [but what are you gonna do about it?]
  • Y is bad but X is genuinely worse because of .... (can sound like a post hoc justification)
  • Y and X are equally bad, but I still support my side because the badness of Y is outweighed by the goodness of A, B, etc.
  • Y is actually not bad because of ....
  • You are right, Y is terrible, I abandon my allies [and join ... what? If Y is disqualifying X surely is too...]

The PCC is a lot more valid when its actually the same person taking inconsistent positions on X and Y. Otherwise your actual interlocutor might not be inconsistent at all but has no plausible way of demonstrating that.

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What About The Horses?
RamblinDash5mo229

The problem with this argument is that it ignores a unique feature of AIs - their copiability. It takes ~20 years and O($300k) to spin up a new human worker. It takes ~20 minutes to spin up a new AI worker. 

So in the long run, for a human to economically do a task, they have to not just have some comparative advantage but have a comparative advantage that's large enough to cover the massive cost differential in "producing" a new one.

This actually analogizes more to engines. I would argue that a big factor in the near-total replacement of horses by engines is not so much that engines are exactly 100x better than horses at everything, but that engines can be mass-produced. In fact I think the claim that engines are exactly equally better than horses at every horse-task is obviously false if you think about it for two minutes. But any time there's a niche where engines are even slightly better than horses, we can just increase production of engines more quickly and cheaply than we can increase production of horses.

These economic concepts such as comparative advantage tend to assume, for ease of analysis, a fixed quantity of workers. When you are talking about human workers in the short term, that is a reasonable simplifying assumption. But it leads you astray when you try to use these concepts to think about AIs (or engines).

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Patent Trolling to Save the World
RamblinDash5mo110

This idea kind of rhymes with gain-of-function research in a way that makes me uncomfortable. "Let's intentionally create harmful things, but its OK because we are creating harmful things for the purpose of preventing the harm that would be caused by those things."

 

I'm not sure if I can formalize this into a logically-tight case against doing it, but it seems conceptually similar to X, and X is bad.

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Tax Price Gouging?
RamblinDash5mo52

Just to make the math easy, let's suppose the gouging tax is 50%. 

 

The air purifiers problem seems like not a big problem? If they are normally "worth" $150 and you value having them at $300, you could post them up for sale at $450. Then, if someone really needs them, you get your $300, they get their air purifier, and $150 goes to disaster relief. This tax only prevents the trade if the buyers would buy them for $300 but not for $450, which limits the amount of deadweight loss here to a maximum of $149, rather than potentially unbounded deadweight loss under current policy.

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Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant swing state, just for elections?
RamblinDash8mo00

Sorry

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Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant swing state, just for elections?
RamblinDash8mo-32

Many states have already passed something like this, which only takes effect once enough states sign on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

 

However, I think it's unlikely that this will get over the 270 hump anytime soon, because right now GOP-run states (correctly) perceive that the EC has a pro-GOP tilt (for now at least); and the swing states benefit a lot from swing status.

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Dentistry, Oral Surgeons, and the Inefficiency of Small Markets
RamblinDash8mo20

Those kinds of VC-run business can also often have other problems. For example, Aspen Dental was sued for deceptive marketing.

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Prediction markets and Taxes
RamblinDash8mo132

It's not true that you can't pay negative taxes on your betting market losses, at least if you are someone who uses prediction markets routinely. You are allowed to deduct your gross gambling losses from your gambling gains, and you only pay tax on the net gain. See https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-news/at-02-53.pdf.

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1The Comcast Problem
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7Lack of Spider-Man is evidence against the simulation hypothesis
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20What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn't make it worse.
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